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03/2025

The Appeal of Global Impact Funds

Andres Gujan on the Attractive Investment Opportunity of Global Impact Funds

In today’s investment landscape, impact funds are becoming increasingly attractive. They offer a unique combination of financial returns and positive social and environmental effects. Through diversification, the use of expertise, a focus on growing sustainable markets, and transparency in impact reporting, these funds present a compelling investment opportunity. Investors looking to achieve their financial goals while making a positive contribution to the world will find global impact funds—such as Carnot Capital’s Carnot Efficient Resources Fund—a valuable and future-oriented investment choice.

The following key reasons highlight why they are a strong investment:

  • Dual Returns: Impact funds aim for both financial gains and measurable positive effects on society and the environment, allowing investors to align their capital with their values.
  • Diversification and Risk Mitigation: These funds invest globally across various sectors and regions, spreading risk and increasing portfolio stability.
  • Growing Demand for Sustainability: The rising global demand for sustainable solutions and increasing regulatory requirements create attractive growth opportunities for companies in which impact funds invest.
  • Professional Management: Global impact funds are often managed by experienced professionals with deep expertise in sustainable investing, enabling them to identify the best investment opportunities.
  • Transparency and Accountability: Impact funds place great importance on measuring and reporting their social and environmental impact, strengthening investor confidence and making the effects of their investments visible.

“The combination of financial returns and positive societal impact makes global impact funds a highly attractive and future-oriented investment opportunity.” Andres Gujan, Founder of Carnot Capital & Impact Portfolio Manager

Andres Gujan, February 13, 2025

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Automotive Industry in Transition: Innovations Driving the Future of Mobility

Automotive Industry in Transition: Innovations Driving the Future of Mobility

Innvations in the Automotive Industry

The automotive industry is currently undergoing major developments in numerous areas:

  • ‘Connected Cars’: The vehicle as a digital platform
  • Autonomous Driving: First robotaxis, then personal vehicles
  • Electromobility: On the rise, especially in China
  • Alternative Fuels: A complement to e-mobility

Mobility is fundamentally shifting toward connected and autonomous vehicles. These changes are not only revolutionizing transportation but also influencing urban design, the working environment, and quality of life.

Digitalization and Sensor Technology as Key Success Factors

At the core of innovation lies the combination of sensor technology and computing power (including AI). Data-driven services and connected mobility are becoming the norm. Technology providers that successfully integrate sensors and digital technologies hold a particularly strong market position.

Electromobility and, above all, the increasing autonomy of vehicles free up space for passengers to pursue various activities—entertainment, work, comfort, relaxation… This, in turn, drives additional demand for sensors and chips. Expected growth rates by 2030 vary by application, reaching over 22% in some cases.

Implications for Carnot Capital

Despite these developments and attractive valuations, we are maintaining a relatively low allocation in automotive suppliers. Our semiconductor and sensor technology positions in Melexis, LEM, Infineon, and Xfab account for around 10% of our portfolio. In addition, Ems-Chemie contributes as a manufacturer of high-performance polymers that make vehicles lighter and safer. With Sandvik, we also participate in the electrification of mining: electric loaders and transporters reduce the carbon footprint of metals while increasing productivity.

We will increase our automotive allocation once we gain confidence in rising car sales and see renewed momentum in electromobility, particularly in Western markets.

Rolf Helbling / Andres Gujan, February 5, 2025

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Stagnant Markets and Rising Competitive Pressure: Europe’s Car Manufacturers in Crisis

Stagnant Markets and Rising Competitive Pressure: Europe’s Car Manufacturers in Crisis

Reorganisation in the Automotive Industry:

VW reported record results in 2022 and 2023, but barely a year later the mood is one of crisis – there is talk of plant closures and redundancies. The other European manufacturers are not faring much better and are also facing capacity adjustments and restructuring. This has a lot to do with the planned switch to electromobility, which has stalled in 2024. Global EV sales rose by 22% in H1 2024, but the market in Europe is stagnating. Fiat, for example, had to reduce production of the 500e by 60% (DW.com).

A Competitive Edge

The blame for the crisis is universally attributed to poor policy: Too little support, too much support, pending ban on combustion engines, purchase premiums, CO2 limits, import tariffs, Chinese subsidies, etc. In our eyes, this perception is not wrong.

However, we believe that the main cause of the crisis is the eroding competitiveness of European car manufacturers, regardless of the type of drive. Asian competitors have become technologically equal, if you believe the (European!) test reports. In terms of production efficiency, they have an advantage anyway: at VW, employees generally work (only) 35 hours a week, but enjoy 6 weeks’ holiday and are sick for more than 5 weeks on average. So it’s easy to understand why, for example, VW employees work more than 5 weeks a week.

Unattractive OEMs, Waiting for Entry Opportunities

The transport sector is responsible for around a third of global energy consumption and is therefore an important fund theme. Nevertheless, we have kept our exposure to the automotive sector below the target level for years (currently approx. 12%). Automobile manufacturers (OEMs) and suppliers such as Continental are unattractive due to their high capital intensity. We are looking for opportunities primarily in the electrification of road and commercial vehicles (Lem, Infineon, Melexis, X-Fab, Sandvik). The electric drive plays an important role here, and new safety and comfort components are also increasing the demand for silicon. However, we are still holding off on acquisitions.

Rolf Helbling / Andres Gujan, 5. November 2024

 

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